The Japster June 2006 – The World Cup Well the Japster’s cup overfloweth after having £50 on Lordi to win Eurovision, so for the World Cup stick with the man in the know. I said in these pages in February that Brazil were good value at almost 3-1 (Befair), and the best price is still around that mark, which is pretty good, although the South Americans do have a dismal record in European tournaments, so what else is of appeal? My preference is for selected games rather than group betting because the possible options of better teams to finish top or second will only take shape after the first two group games. I know that a lot of punters will look for many of the first group games to be low scoring and end level, the betting theory known as “for Gawd’s sake let’s not lose the first game”. With the 0-0 odds for the first 16 games ranging from 8-1 to 16-1 you only need 2 to finish goalless to guarantee a profit. Personally for the first group games I’m going to back some longer priced countries to win the games ie Costa Rica (12-1), Trinidad (14-1), Ivory Coast (7-1), Angola (9-1), Ghana (7-1) and Croatia (8-1) and bank the money on Betfair if they score the first goal. (For those who are not sure how to do this, send me an email and I’ll explain, though possibly not one for the ladies.) Similarly I’m taking Ivory Coast at 100/1 and will cash some of it in if they get through their group. Top goalscorer I’m taking Van Nistelrooy at 20/1 Betfair. As I noted previously I think its best to stick with a player who will play every game (ie not Ronaldo), and Ruud after all is in the shop window. On the cards front, Betfair have set a market where you can profit at around 2/1 if you think that there will be more than 21 reds in the tournament ie around 1 in every 3 games (the spread is around 18-20). Of course a lot depends on FIFA’s dictat to referees – which may be apparent by as early as the end of the first day (the second game may be a better guide than the first, as I don’t think they would dare send off a German), - but its certainly of interest and notably a market that the big bookmakers do not want to get involved in. (Yellows are set at around 270 ie around 3.5 per game.) For fun 8/11 Crouchy to score and do the robot – my February column suggested Crouch 66/1 to be Sports Personality of the Year (now 14/1) and 200/1 to be top World Cup scorer (now 50/1) – hope you got on. If you think Sven will do the robot Paddy Power go 25/1. My golden rule in International footy betting is not to bet on England. Firstly because although the International betting markets have largely negated the weight of money placed in this country, there is still a false sense about the 8/1 currently offered, because there are too many bookies hedging their funds here to compensate various gimmick payouts if England win eg all singles refunded if England win the WC. Secondly if and when we lose, like a large malt, a punt on the other team will deaden the pain. Cheers! Ed: Hindsight is a wonderful thing eh, Japster. Needless to say, this report was written before the World Cup started.